CNN has the electoral college count at Bush ahead 301-237. Does that sound like a close race? As I've said before, looking at the popular vote in a Presidential campaign is like looking at total yards gained in a football game, instead of the score. Interesting, but meaningless. Anybody understand why the media is playing it as a tight horserace? Is it because they're lazy, and it's easier to report on numbers than on issues? Is it because they want to make it seem close for ratings? Or is it a bias towrds Kerry, to keep up interest beyond the few states in play?

President Bush and the campaign get cocky when the lead widens. In 2000 they had a decent lead and almost lost. "If it's not close, they can't cheat".

But a number of other electoral vote predictors have Kerry ahead or Bush barely ahead. CNN is one very few to have Bush so far ahead.

In the electoral college it'll be Bush 314, senator Kerry whatever...

re: "In so many ways Bush's fate is in the hands of current events. How he responds to those events will be important." (Tim)

I think you're right. Two interesting recent events uncontrollable by the DNC and RNC hacks were Chris Reeve's death and the relatively successful Afghanistan vote. And I think the way the candidates discuss those issues (stem cell research and a major Bush foreign policy success) can make a difference in close races. And there will be more odd, uncontrollable circumstances.

If you guys never trust the media, why do you trust CNN's electoral college poll? Seems like you're choosing to trust only good news.

I'm not trusting the polls in the media. I'm just predicting right out of my gut. I think it's as good as anything the media has put out so far.